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Sunday, September 16, 2018



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NOAA launches America’s first national water forecast model

NOAA launches America’s first national water forecast model

New tool hailed as a game changer for predicting floods, informing water-related decisions

NOAA and its partners have developed a new forecasting tool to simulate how water moves throughout the nation’s rivers and streams, paving the way for the biggest improvement in flood forecasting the country has ever seen.

The development, announced and launched last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, comes as Louisiana reels from one of the biggest floods in its history.

Run on NOAA’s powerful new Cray XC40 supercomputer, the National Water Model uses data from more than 8,000 U.S. Geological Survey gauges to simulate conditions for 2.7 million locations in the contiguous United States. The model generates hourly forecasts for the entire river network.

Previously, NOAA was only able to forecast streamflow for 4,000 locations every few hours.

The model also improves NOAA’s ability to meet the needs of its emergency managers, reservoir operators, first responders, recreationists, farmers, barge operators, and ecosystem and floodplain managers — with more accurate, detailed, frequent and expanded water information.

The nation has experienced a number of disastrous floods in recent years, including the ongoing flooding this week in Louisiana, accentuating the importance of more detailed water forecasts to help people prepare.

“With a changing climate, we’re experiencing more prolonged droughts and a greater frequency of record-breaking floods across the country, underscoring the nation’s need for expanded water information,” said Louis Uccellini, Ph.D., director of the National Weather Service. “The National Water Model will improve resiliency to water extremes in American communities. And as our forecasts get better, so will our planning and protection of life and property when there’s either too much water, too little, or poor water quality.”

Initially, the model will benefit flash flood forecasts in headwater areas and provide water forecast information for many areas that currently aren’t covered.

As the model evolves, it will provide “zoomed-in,” street-level forecasts and inundation maps to improve flood warnings, and will expand to include water quality forecasts.

“Through our partnership with the research, academic and federal water community, NOAA is bringing the state-of-the-science in water forecasting and prediction to bear operationally,” said Thomas Graziano, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s new Office of Water Prediction at the National Weather Service. “Over the past 50 years, our capabilities have been limited to forecasting river flow at a relatively limited number of locations. This model expands our forecast locations 700 times and generates several additional water variables, such as soil moisture, runoff, stream velocity, and other parameters to produce a more comprehensive picture of water behavior across the country.”

The underlying technology for the model was developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). NOAA developed and implemented the model along with NCAR, the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Sciences, the National Science Foundation, and others.

The new system "gives us a continuous picture of all of the waterways in the contiguous United States," David Gochis, a National Center for Atmospherica Research scientist who helped lead the model's development, said in a news release. "By generating detailed forecast guidance that is hours to weeks ahead, it will help officials make more-informed decisions about reservoir levels and river navigation, as well as alerting them to dangerous events like flash floods."

The model simulates current and future conditions on rivers and streams along points two miles apart across the entire country. Along with an hourly analysis of current water conditions, the National Water Model generates three predictions: an hourly 0- to 15-hour short-range forecast, a daily 0- to 10-day medium-range forecast, and a daily 0- to 30-day long-range forecast.

It will help local, state and federal officials better manage reservoirs and waterways, improve navigation along major rivers, plan for droughts, anticipate water-quality problems and monitor wildlife and fisheries, center officials said.

By providing a national view, this will also help the Federal Emergency Management Agency deploy resources more effectively in cases of simultaneous emergencies, such as a hurricane in the Gulf Coast and flooding in California.

"We've never had such a comprehensive system before," Gochis said. "In some ways, the value of this is a blank page yet to be written."